Read the full transcript of our weekly Blues chat.
Matthew DeFranks: Good afternoon. We're about four weeks away from Blues training camp. Let's get to some questions.
Tylerg: Ok Matty D, Milan Lucic signed a PTO with STL?! Surely nobody had that on their bingo card haha. I’m sure you’ll be peppered with this today so apologies for any redundancy. Is this signing a, I don’t want to say charity signing, so we’ll say a second chance signing? Sort of like Montgomery had a few years ago in STL as an assistant coach after he dealt with some personal issues, is this the same general idea? Any clue if Montgomery was a driving force behind this decision or where it came from in general? Down to brass tax, I don’t see a world where Luc makes this team unless he’s willing to play in Springfield at minimum. Lucic has been washed since like 2016ish. However, for fun let’s say he comes to camp in shape, is the bull he was 10-12 years ago and makes the team, who sits? I guess Walker sits or rotates? Do they waive Joseph of Texier? This whole thing is just so out of left field and I’m really curious to hear your take. As always, thanks for taking the time and doing this for us my guy! Cheers!
Matthew DeFranks: I don't know where the decision to sign Milan Lucic to a PTO came from, but I am sure that Jim Montgomery was consulted. They didn't share a lot of time together in Boston, but Montgomery still was the last coach that had him.
For those unfamiliar with the off-ice issues for Lucic, he was arrested for assault and battery on a family member in 2023. Those charges were dropped in 2024 when his wife decided not to testify against Lucic. He entered the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program and has since been reinstated by the league.
The Blues have a history of offering "second chances" to people with checkered pasts. Jim Montgomery is obviously one of them after he got fired in Dallas. Logan Mailloux is another in his own way. Now Lucic, even if he may not end up being on the team.
Realistically, I don't see a path forward for Lucic to make the roster. As you mentioned, he hasn't been the power forward he once was for a while now, and hasn't had a season with more than 23 points since 2017-18. He's 37. He was always slow. And he hasn't played competitively in two years. That's a lot going against him.
Add in the number of bodies in the bottom six and then it looks even tougher for him. Penciled in would be Neighbours, Suter, Bjugstad, Toropchenko, Sundqvist, Walker. Texier and Joseph are fighting for spots. Dvorsky is trying to prove himself. Kaskimaki and Peterson are looking to make their NHL debuts. Younger guys like Stenberg, Pekarcik would be longer shots, but nevertheless in the mix.
In a world that Lucic somehow makes not only the roster, but the lineup, he's exclusively a winger. Stylistically, he fits with physical guys like Toropchenko and Walker. But then you'd have to move someone (probably Walker) inside despite spending the summer adding depth to your center position in the bottom six.
I can see them being open to waiving Texier or Joseph. At this point, it should hardly be a surprise that Doug Armstrong would consider waiving players after what he did with Saad and Leddy.
rabidmonkeyfish99: I think the trade for Logan Mailloux was brilliant and the risk of trading for an unproven player is well worth it considering his upside and the league-wide dearth of top 4 RHD. Bolduc is a good player and can become a great player. If his ceiling likely is a 2nd liner (which we project by 2027 to have several of), then the opportunity to move a winger that has the added value to Montreal of being French-Canadian (which doesn't sell tickets in St Louis) to a team that may be the only one in the league with a perceived surplus of RHD prospects is a very good example of maximizing assets. I appreciate not playing it safe, knowing you have to take risks to build a cup-contending team. How do you view the trade?
Matthew DeFranks: That's basically how Doug Armstrong viewed the trade. Trading from a surplus at winger to chase a premium position like right-handed defenseman. The main contention I've seen a lot is that the Blues traded a known quantity and proven NHL contributor for an AHL player that they project to be an NHL contributor.
This sort of trade is exactly what Doug Armstrong said he'd be interested in doing. A hockey trade with a young, controllable asset coming back the other way. Looked at with the context of the Blues' effort to build a young defensive group, I think you can see even more where the Blues were coming from.
In the last 15 months basically, the Blues have added Broberg, Mailloux, Jiricek, Fischer and Ralph to the pipeline. Obviously, some of them are further away and some are NHL ready now. But that's a ways from where they were before with Michael Buchinger and Theo Lindstein as the top guys in the system.
Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Happy Wednesday to all, thank you Matt for doing the chat, we Blues fans can't wait for camp to begin. What is your opinion of the Lucic PTO? Is it a ploy to spice up training camp, or is it Monty is familiar with this guy and he might be able to use him in the locker room to help mature the kids? Or a way to move a 4th line guy off the payroll by signing a 37 year old for peanuts? This could be a multiple choice question, A, B, C, or D all of the above?
Matthew DeFranks: It's a lottery ticket. If he's not good, there's nothing the Blues lost except maybe a little PR goodwill.
Let's say he does end up getting a spot and a contract. I'm assuming it'll be for the league minimum $775,000. And in that case, perhaps Joseph or Texier is waived. The maximum teams can bury in the minors is $1.15M, meaning it's only a $375,000 savings on the cap. It's something, but it wouldn't be the primary motivation.
OneNationSTL: I got my home opener tickets! Who all is going?!?!
Matthew DeFranks: If you look behind the banners, you will see your neighborhood friendly scribe up there.
Sctdog: Over/under 7 Blues forwards score 20 goals or more. Over/Under 3 Blues D score 10 goals are more. How many western conference teams could be over in both cases?
Matthew DeFranks: I'm going to go under seven forwards with at least 20 goals. In the last three years, only one team (the 2023-24 Stars) reached that threshold, and they were the best team in the West. It's hard to get to.
I'll go under on the three defensemen as well. Similarly, in the last three years, only the 2023-24 Oilers and 2022-23 Panthers did that. Both of those teams lost in the Cup Final.
Sctdog: Between Monty, Julien and Webster odds they make Mailluex a plus player on his first year?
Matthew DeFranks: You're going to think I'm lying, but there was only one defenseman under Montgomery last season that was a minus player. That was Justin Faulk at minus-1.
I expect Mailloux to receive sheltered minutes on the third pair
Sctdog: If they waive and place either Joesph and/or Texier in Springfield how much are they charged on the salary cap, % of salary or some other number?
Matthew DeFranks: They are allowed to bury $1.15M in the minors. So for Texier, he would still count $950,000 on the cap. Joseph would still count $1.8M on the cap.
Of course, if they are claimed by another team, the Blues would be free of the whole cap hit.
DCG: MDF: With the Blues having some pretty good cap space once the LTIR kicks in, do you think Army will look to make a move in season if a quality player becomes available? Are there any quality centers who could be on the move if their team falls out of contention?
Matthew DeFranks: To catch those up that don't know, the Blues are currently under the salary cap even without Torey Krug on LTIR. Once the Blues choose to put him on LTIR, they can exceed the salary cap by close to his $6.5M hit, depending on how close they are to the ceiling at that time.
Rental centers could include Adrian Kempe ($5.5M) if the Kings stumble. Or a winger that can play center like Nick Schmaltz ($5.85M) if Utah doesn't improve.
That being said, it would not line up with the team's actions and timeline to acquire a rental center, and I haven't looked enough outside that market right now.
rabidmonkeyfish99: Is it possible that bringing in Milan Lucic on a PTO is mostly just a favor to his agent Gerry Johannson? I noticed that he is also the agent for Pius Suter.
Matthew DeFranks: Possible, I guess, but I wouldn't think so.
move my guess up to 90% might play with him
Matthew DeFranks: I assume this was in reference to Mailloux being a plus player. There's confidence out there.
Roy Hobbs 3.0: Here to check in on my boy Hugh McGing and... well, you know. He's not no shot at stealing a roster spot, eh? None? Zilch, zero, nada?
Matthew DeFranks: He'll be in camp, and I guess that's all I have to say about that. Good to see you, 3.0.
Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Will Thomas generate 100 points this season? I say yes with the help of Snuggy.
Matthew DeFranks: His 81 points in 70 games last year equate to 95 points in a full 82-game season. So he was close if he doesn't fracture his ankle.
I'm not sure Jimmy Snuggerud is the difference in getting Thomas over the hump, but perhaps another step forward in Thomas' game.
If you're feeling good, Thomas had 40 points in 26 games after the 4 Nations Face-Off. That's a 126-point pace. It's just about doing it for the whole season. That's hard.
pugger: Ready for hockey season Matt? It's kind of a slow summer... I think the STL is ready for the season to start. Especially as fans know the Cardinals are going to rebuilding for 3-5 years, so let's focus on the Blues!!! :)
Matthew DeFranks: Sometimes, the summers are too short. This one is ending at the right time, I think. Let's get back to the rink.
pugger: Lucic? You may have got this question already, but.. Why? That seems like it's a player over the hill with some outside of hockey issues that are cringe worthy.. Don't get it
Matthew DeFranks: Covered it a little bit earlier, but I don't see his chances of making the team as realistic. From a hockey perspective, it's a low-risk move. If he's not good, they release him from his PTO and move on.
pugger: Yea, if we are just being honest, the Cardinals suck and they will suck for a while... The Blues should take advantage of that apathy and create even more fans... !!
Matthew DeFranks: I'm sure the Blues front office is aware of the state of the Cardinals and City right now.
mrr: Does the Lucic signing say something about the readiness of the kids in the minors? or is it to bring in a pro to show "The right way" to work as a hockey player? or...
Matthew DeFranks: Don't think so. It's a PTO. Most of them don't amount to anything meaningful anyways.
Jimfla: Happy Wednesday Matt. What can you tell us about Logan Mailloux’s physical play ? Thx
Matthew DeFranks: He's a big body, and he'll use it from time to time. But he's not a finished product defensively.
HallPlante: The Lucic PTO makes little sense because the Blues are in a "retool," aimed at building a championship contender. Therefore, Blues should choose bottom-six players who can grow with team in coming years. If Blues insist there's nothing to lose with Lucic, why not offer PTO to every unemployed player? Sincerely, Annoyed by Lack of Transparency
Matthew DeFranks: These are good points. I just view PTOs like college free agents. Most don't do anything, so there are other things to worry about. Except that we're in the dead period in August.
HallPlante: In fairness, Curtis Joseph was a college free agent [smile].
Matthew DeFranks: Damn it, HallPlante. Most!
HallPlante: Yeah, I read too quickly. My bad.
Has Monty given you a sneak preview of what will be the point(s) of emphasis in training camp? The one thing, or two, that team wants to improve.
Matthew DeFranks: I haven't spoken to Monty since development camp, but I believe our Ben Hochman will have something else from his conversation with him.
pugger: Would seem like with a young team you avoid the off ice issues in a player... Still don't get it. Even if he's there for training camp then booted...
Matthew DeFranks: Fair point. If the player isn't likely to contribute, why welcome the issues?
HallPlante: Based on your experience, does the Olympics usually have positive, negative or neutral effect on contending teams with multiple participants?
Matthew DeFranks: It's a good question, and maybe will have to look into it back in 2014. But I do believe that Florida had the most 4 Nations participants. Obviously, they won the Cup, but Matthew Tkachuk got hurt along the way.
Tim: Do you think the teams lack of star power will undercut their competitive window? You can argue they didn't have a capital "S" star in 2019 but most cup winners are lead by a true game changer. The Blues seems to have a lot of 1.5 liners if that makes sense. Of course guys can emerge and trades happen but do you think they will end up being good and not great?
Matthew DeFranks: That's the major hump facing this team, but it's the way Doug Armstrong builds teams because the Blues don't tank and they don't sign superstar free agents. I think you can look at the 2019 Blues as the anomaly among recent champs because they didn't have a true star.
We'll see if that approach can hold in the future, or if they'll need a different way to find stars. I think we've seen Carolina and Dallas, two deep teams, now try to chase superstar talent, with Mikko Rantanen being a prime example for both.
A concerned fan: It seems as though the analysis of our farm system focuses on a lot of depth, but not much top of the lineup talent. What prospects do you think the Blues project as top six forwards or top pair defensemen if they develop on their current trajectory?
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, the farm system is similar to the NHL roster in that sense. I'm higher on Dalibor Dvorsky than most thinking he can become a top-line guy at some point, but we'll see how he develops further. From a pure production standpoint, I think Justin Carbonneau has got to be in that conversation.
Jiricek and Lindstein would be your hopes, but not sure either profiles as a top-pair guy, to be honest.
rabidmonkeyfish99: How difficult is it for a player to "improve his skating" in an offseason? We hear Dvorsky has to "improve his skating". What does that entail for him to do this offseason as an example that he hasn't already been doing? Is it strength-related, form-related, both? I guess i am most interested if a player's skating is a 4 on a 1-10 scale, what realistically can he get to?
Matthew DeFranks: I wish I could give you a better answer other than work with a skating coach. I don't know the intricacies of skating well enough to be able to know what mechanically can change with Dvorsky's stride.
DCG: Regarding your point that you don't think trading for a rental lines up with Army's vision of the team right now, I have a couple of follow ups. First, I certainly get that you wouldn't want to give up young players for a rental if you don't see yourself as a contender, but what about making the trade with the goal re-sign a guy like Kempe? He's exactly what the team needs at nearly a point/game over the last two seasons. That would be a huge second line center upgrade. Which leads to my second question--can teams negotiate extensions with potential trade candidates the way the do in the NBA? Assuming, of course, they have permission from the trade candidate's current team.
Matthew DeFranks: I'll answer your second question first. Yes, teams can do that and you see it fairly regularly around the trade deadline for teams that want to trade for a player, but only with an extension in place. We'll throw Mikko Rantanen back in the mix. That was the only way he was getting to Dallas was with an extension, and Carolina gave the Stars permission to negotiate.
For a guy like Kempe, I think the only way the Blues do something like that is if there is an extension in place. Doug Armstrong mentioned this summer before the draft that they wouldn't trade a first-rounder for someone with only one year left on a contract. Of course, they don't have to trade a first, but the point remains that a player with term in the right age group is what the Blues want. If they pursue a rental, I imagine an extension is also in the works.
pugger: How would you define 'top pair D-man'.. Just wanted your thoughts. Was Petro really a top pair guy? Or a 1A ??
Matthew DeFranks: Alex Pietrangelo was a No. 1 defenseman, no doubt. My definition is someone that can drive play at 5v5, run the top power play, face top matchups, and produce points. With more coaches shielding top defensemen from killing penalties, that part has fallen from my criteria, but the rest point to an all-around dominant defenseman.
DCG: Thanks for the info, and I totally get the point of not trading for a mere rental. I don't think it makes sense either. I was definitely thinking of trading someone that they'd want to extend in a season where they're in the rare position of actually having the cap space to afford the person for the current season.
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, it gives them some options, for sure. I mean, they did go and get Cam Fowler last year.
One more clarification, I mistakenly labeled Kempe as a center. He's a winger.
pugger: Exactly.. And I've worked with hundreds of victims of DV... Women who report are trying to get/remain safe, it's much more widespread than people know. And under reported. And for the idiots who think people false report, little evidence to support that. Hopefully Lucic washes out the 1st week..
Fair.. But by your definition, Parayko was close.. Not doing tons driving 5x5, but.. That did improve last year.. And I'd argue he's more sound/better defensively than Petro. And Petro was great, I miss him, but it's not like he was putting up 75 point seasons.. 40, 45, 50.. Just sayin
Matthew DeFranks: I guess it was also about the consistency and longevity for Pietrangelo. Across his career, he was never worse than 0.46 points per game, and that came in his (presumably) final season last year. His 82-game average for his career was 48 points.
pugger: Thank you for putting that blurb in the chat.. Appreciate that. I'm an old dude, social worker, and when you see the same situation 100's of times, you realize what women are really dealing with. It's horrible.. I'm all for helping men, anger management, etc.. But, not sure you want some of those men in potentail positions of leadership.. They have no credibility..
Fair enough sir.. I miss Petro.. Big mistake to let him walk... :(
Matthew DeFranks: The Blues paid their price for that move, and seem to be close to the other side of the Krug/Faulk/Leddy era.
pugger: We need more chatters.. Poor Matt is stuck answering all my questions... ha..
Yes, a rare misstep by Army.... but, he's only human.. Lot of moving parts to that situation, and not sure we know all of them
Matthew DeFranks: There have been smaller errors, but that was the most meaningful.
That's all that's in the chat, so we'll call it there. Have a good day!