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Sure, there’s fairly straightforward reasoning that lends itself to the belief that Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray could be more receptive to a trade this offseason than last.

During a recent Fox broadcast of a Cardinals game against the New York Yankees, the topic of Gray’s future became fodder for speculation with baseball reporter Ken Rosenthal raising the potential of Gray changing teams this winter.

The veteran right-hander will have the right to control his future via a no-trade clause in his contract, but the Cardinals still have a large say in the proceedings. Moving on from Gray this winter may suit Gray more than it does the club.

After all, the Cardinals appear likely to spend at least another season laying the foundation and sorting through roster decisions under incoming president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom. Expecting an instant turnaround isn’t realistic.

Gray, 35, will head into the offseason only assured one more season with the Cardinals. If getting a better chance at a postseason run matters enough that Gray would consider accepting a trade, then it’s surely worth consideration.

However, that doesn’t mean it’s something the Cardinals must do.

Gray has one year and a club option remaining on his current contract. He’s slated to make $35 million next season, and the buyout for the club option year is an additional $5 million. If exercised, the club option for 2027 will pay Gray $30 million for the final year of the deal.

Gray’s presence alone won’t keep the Cardinals in playoff contention next season. Though his departure from the rotation will not have a negligible impact.

Heading into Monday, the Cardinals’ record in Gray’s starts dating back to last season was 36-18. Meanwhile, the team’s overall record since the start of the 2024 season was just one game above .500 at 147-146.

For what it’s worth, the Cardinals — not Gray but the team — won 2/3 of the days when Gray stepped on the rubber. When he didn’t, they were a well below .500 team (111-128).

Sure, you can say that’s not a perfect measurement of his impact. You might even argue that winning his starts isn’t going to matter next season as much getting experience for younger pitchers.

Well, the organizational lack of starting pitching depth is the major prism the front office should filter decisions through this offseason.

Even if they believe they’ve started to turn the tide in that respect with additions through the draft and minor leaguers acquired through trades, the pitching shortage of recent years will still affect the major league club next season.

The Cardinals starting rotation currently includes young starters Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante and Michael McGreevy.

Miles Mikolas becomes a free agent at the end of the season. So that’s one rotation spot that opens up just by doing nothing other than not re-signing Mikolas.

Last season’s Baseball America Minor League Pitcher of the Year Quinn Mathews seems to have gotten back on track after ups and downs and a stint on the injured list in April (shoulder), but Zach Thompson, Drew Rom, Ian Bedell, Tekoah Roby, Sem Robberse, Cooper Hjerpe and Tink Hence all had their seasons interrupted or curtailed by injury.

Roby, Robberse and Hjerpe had Tommy John surgery, which will mean their respective rehabs will continue into the 2026 season.

So the internal options after Mathews, who you could slide into Mikolas’ spot, consist of pitchers who haven’t proven themselves durable enough to handle the workload and/or haven’t yet proven themselves up to the level of competition.

Convert a current reliever into a starter? Some potential candidates for that exist in Gordon Graceffo and Kyle Leahy.

Though its an open question how they’d translate as full-time starters in the majors. On top of that, you’d risk of running into the same thing that’s been on display late this season where workload has caught up to both Liberatore and Pallante. Their performances have become inconsistent, and some physical concerns have arisen.

There’s a hyper-aggressive approach of pushing starters with even less experience in the upper levels of the minors such as Max Rajcic, Brycen Mautz, Ixan Henderson or Pete Hansen to the majors, crossing your fingers and hoping you’re not setting them up for failure or a setback in their development.

Of course, if Gray remained with the Cardinals through the first part of next season, that would buy time for those others to gain sturdier footing before making that leap.

Without Gray, that would make Pallante the closest thing in the Cardinals’ projected rotation to an experienced starter. He’ll likely max out at around 160 innings this season, his first full year in the rotation.

That leaves a lot of uncertainty and a lot of potential innings to account for next season, and that’s if all goes well in terms of health.

Of course, the Cardinals could go out and sign a veteran free agent on a one-year deal to provide some stability and a baseline level of certainty as far as innings. Then again, you could get that from Gray.

If you’re focused on saving salary — I’m sure ownership thanks you — well, there’s the possibility that you have to pay a portion of Gray’s salary to facilitate a trade. So you could spend money to trade Gray and spend money to slot another veteran placeholder into the rotation.

Oh, and Gray would still dictate where he’s traded.

Perhaps it’s worth it to have Gray stay put, provide certainty in the rotation, a potential trade chip next summer and a security blanket that lets the organization proceed deliberately with the development of its internal starting options.